Former Special-Ops guy John Robb writes Global Guerrillas, “an open notebook on the first epochal war of the 21st Century.” The latest post, An Attack On Iran = Catalyst Of Chaos summarizes his current thinking on Iran, and the implications for the US.
The economic/societal wave: state failures. A gulf monarchy falls. Successful terrorist attacks on oil production systems have deepened the global energy crisis (and it appears it will continue indefinitely). The global economy goes into a severe and prolonged contraction. The worst finally happens: China’s export oriented economy collapses. Protests, currently running at 200 a day, spike to thousands and they are increasingly violent (as protesters clash with domestic militias). The government attempts to crack down with the army but finds neither support nor a passive population during this attempt. Further, the scale of the unrest is too vast. Lacking legitimacy due to a decade of rampant corruption and an inability to deliver rapid growth anymore, the country fragments.
Summary: Possible return to states as the organizing principle, without much left of the federal government. The scary part: John really knows his stuff. Always nice to have a worst-case scenario in mind, if only to attempt avoidance.